Population projections
Absolute numbers
Compared with 2008, by 2018 the population of Blackburn with Darwen is projected to grow by 1.8%, and by 3.6% by 2028, compared with projected growth nationally of 5% and 10% respectively.
Between 2008 and 2028 the number of people in Blackburn with Darwen
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aged 0-19 is projected to decrease by 6%, compared with 9% nationally
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aged 65+ is projected to increase by 30%, compared with 32% nationally
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aged 85+ is projected to increase by 43%, compared with 55% nationally.
Age structure
Between 2008 and 20028 the local age structure is projected to shift towards an older population, with the most rapid growth in the 85+ age group. However, change will occur more slowly than in the country as a whole, so that at the extremes of age, Blackburn with Darwen becomes more different from the rest of the country, though this trend starts to weaken towards the 20 year horizon.
The proportion of the local population aged 0-19 is projected to decrease to 28.9% by 2018 and to 28.4% by 2028, compared with 22.2% and 21.8% respectively, nationally.
The proportion of the local population aged 65+ is projected to increase to 14.6% by 2018 and to 16.9% by 2028, compared with 18.9% and 21.4% respectively, nationally.
The proportion of the Borough population aged 85+ is projected to increase to 1.8% by 2018 and to 2.3% by 2028, compared with 2.6% and 3.4% respectively, nationally.
Forecasting future health trends
The first Wanless report ‘Securing our Future Health: Taking a Long-Term View’, published in 2002, examined likely future health trends, and the subsequent resources required of the NHS and PCTs. The report identified three alternative scenarios for the future, depending on how life expectancy rises over time. In the fully engaged scenario, high levels of public engagement in relation to managing personal health, a high rate of technological uptake within the NHS, and a greater prevention of diseases would increase life expectancy beyond current forecasts.
‘Securing Good Health for the Whole Population’, which followed in 2004, focussed on the prevention of ill health, tackling the wider determinants of health, and action that can be taken to improve health and reduce health inequalities. This second report indicates how “the life expectancy target … could be achieved if the promising reductions of CHD and cancer continues but it also requires substantial progress to be made in the most disadvantaged areas”. PCT action, by inference, needs to target the hardest groups to reach.
Limiting Long Term Illness
By 2026 the number of local people with a limiting long term illness is projected to increase by 44% (to 27% of the population), compared with a projected national increase of 92% (to 26% of the population).
The main drivers for the local change are
1. increases in age-specific limiting long term illness rates resulting from a rise in health conditions associated with lifestyle choices such as smoking, lack of physical activity, alcohol consumption and poor diet.
2. the more elderly population that is expected in 2026, which, as previously described, will not increase as rapidly as in the country as a whole.
The limiting long term illness population structure is expected to be younger in 2026 than now, so the nature of support and services demanded may also change.
Obesity
Recent national projections suggest that by 2015 36% of men and 28% of women will be obese, rising to 47% and 36% respectively by 2025.
These levels of obesity would be associated with significant increases in age- and gender-standardised incidence rates of the three commonest obesity-related diseases as follows;
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Diabetes - increase 25% by 2015, and 50% by 2025
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Stroke - increase 12% by 2015, and 22% by 2025
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CHD - increase 10% by 2015, and 19% by 2025
